Credit Union and Economic Reports

Credit Union Trends Report

The Credit Union Trends Report is a quarterly "pulse check" on the state of the credit union marketplace, often placed in a historical context. The report includes data from two months prior and is published and distributed by Steven Rick from TruStage®.

Q4 2025

• The economy is expected to grow above trend in 2026, while inflation is expected to remain above the Federal Reserve’s target.
• Credit union new-auto loan balances fell 0.5% in the third quarter.
• The contract interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate conventional home mortgage fell to 6.10% in January 2026, down from 6.96% in January 2025.
• During the year ending in the third quarter 2025 savings balances rose 5%, below the long-run annual average of 7%.
• Credit union first mortgage loan originations rose 27% in the first half of 2025 compared to the first half of 2024.
• The credit union loan delinquency rate rose to 0.94% in the third quarter of 2025.
• Credit union consolidation picked up in 2025 as the number of credit unions declined 3.7%.

Past reports

Q3 2025

The economy is expected to grow above trend in 2026, while inflation is expected to remain above the Federal Reserve’s target.

Q2 2025

Credit union return-on-asset ratios averaged 0.65% in the first quarter of 2025, 2 basis points higher than the 63 basis points reported in the first quarter of 2024.

Economic Report

Q4 2025

• Expect above trend economic growth in 2026, (2.4%).
• Inflation expected to remain above target during the next 2 years.
• Expect the unemployment rate to rise to the natural rate of 4.5% in 2026.
• Short-term interest rates are expected to fall 50 bp in 2026.
• Expect credit union loan growth of 5.5% in 2026.
• Credit Union Return on Assets expected to rise to 0.80% in 2026.