Credit Union and Economic Reports

Credit Union Trends Report

The Credit Union Trends Report is a quarterly "pulse check" on the state of the credit union marketplace, often placed in a historical context. The report includes data from two months prior and is published and distributed by Steven Rick from TruStage®.

Q1 2026

• The economy is expected to grow slightly below trend in 2026, while inflation is expected to remain above the Federal Reserve's target.
• Expect credit union loan balances to rise 5.5% in 2026, better than the 4.6% in 2025 but below the 7% long run average.
• Household debt-to-income ratios are back to the levels seen in the 1990s, before the housing and debt boom of 2002-2007.
• New vehicle sales rose 3.7% in March from February to a 16.3 million seasonally-adjusted annualized sales rate but were down 8.7% from the pace set one year earlier.
• The personal savings rate (personal savings divided by disposable personal income) averaged 4.7% in 2025, below the 5% long run average.
• The credit union movement's equity-to-asset ratio ended 2025 at 10.4%, up from the 9.7% reported at year-end 2024.
• Credit union memberships rose to over 145.9 million, up 1.6% from one year earlier.

Past reports

Q4 2025

The economy is expected to grow above trend in 2026, while inflation is expected to remain above the Federal Reserve's target.

Q3 2025

The economy is expected to see modest stagflation in 2026, as economic growth remains below trend and inflation remains above target.

Economic Report

Q1 2026

• The unemployment rate remained at 4.3.% in May, below the 4.5% considered full employment.
• GDP growth slowed to 1.6% in the first quarter of 2026, below the 2% considered the long run natural growth rate.
• Inflation, as measured by the core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index, rose 3.3% over the last 12 months, which could cause the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates later this year.